British homes need air conditioning to survive predicted levels of global heating, warn government climate advisers
Story 206: The UK should prepare for 2ºC of global warming by 2050
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) published a major report on how the UK should adapt to the impacts of global heating.
CCC is not a campaigning group. It is an independent statutory body established under the UK’s Climate Change Act 2008 to advise the UK government on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate impacts.
Barnes2050 only reports on the most important climate forecasts. That puts a premium on sources. This report is a warning from inside the machinery of UK government.
It is exhaustive and exhausting. It covers so topics and has so many implications - from homes and hospitals to farming, flooding, food, water, infrastructure and public health. For example, climate change is already costing the UK £60billion every year, or 2% of GDP. Without adaptation, this could rise to £260billion or 5% of GDP by 2050.
You can watch twenty minute video here or read the summary below of the top ten things to take from this report.
Welcome to Barnes2050, a place-based futures project asking: how do we make sure Barnes - the place and its people - is thriving and climate-ready by 2050?
Brace for 40ºC+ Summers
Heatwaves are projected to exceed 40ºC across the UK by 2050, potentially reaching as high as 45ºC in southern England.
Julia King, chair of the CCC’s adaptation subcommittee said,
Extreme heat is certainly the most deadly of the climate impacts on the UK, so we need to see cooling rolled out at scale.
Barnes2050 has argued since launch that Barnes needs to treat heat threat as seriously as it has flooding. Water destroys property: heat kills people. Especially older people.
Increasing heat-related mortality
If the UK fails to implement adaptation measures to stop people from overheating, heat-related illnesses could cause up to 10,000 deaths annually by 2050.
Underscoring the immediate lethality of extreme temperatures, the report notes that ‘[i]n 2022 more than 3,200 people are thought to have died from such illnesses’.
Adaptation is cheaper than climate damages
Securing the UK against climate impacts requires an estimated £11billion in annual investment from public and private sectors, which would prevent between £60billion and £260billion in yearly economic damages by 2050.
The CCC emphatically stresses that investing in climate adaptation is ‘cheaper than facing the damages’.
Most UK homes unfit for the future climate
Roughly nine in ten British homes are currently not designed to withstand future heat, and an estimated 92% of all homes will be at risk of overheating by 2050.
The UK is built for a climate that no longer exists today and will be increasingly distant in years to come.
Mandated cooling in healthcare and education
The CCC report demands that air conditioning be installed in all UK care homes and hospitals within the next decade, and in all schools within 25 years.
Highlighting the need to protect the most susceptible populations, Julia King stated,
[W]e’ve got to get serious about protecting our most vulnerable people in hospitals, in care homes, and in schools.
Looming deficits in the water supply
Due to increasingly dry summers, England could face a daily water shortfall of 5 billion litres by 2050, requiring an immediate scale-up in reservoir construction and water efficiency measures.
Baroness Brown warned,
We’re facing a potential world where in 2050 you could turn the tap on and nothing would come out.
Expanding threats to properties from flooding
Without sufficient adaptation and defences, the 7 million properties already at risk of flooding in the UK could increase by 40% by 2050.
To counter this, the CCC has proposed a target that
the total number of residential properties impacted by flooding in the UK from all sources should remain no greater than today’s level.
Prompted by Richmond council, Barnes2050 reviewed the flooding risk in the local area.
Regulating maximum working temperatures
The government is being urged to set a legal maximum temperature for working both indoors and outdoors to protect workers from severe heat stress.
A GMB union organizer argued that it makes ‘no sense whatsoever’ for the government to mandate a minimum temperature for working conditions without providing a maximum limit.
Increasing threats to domestic food security
Changing climates directly threaten agriculture, as evidenced by a recent hot and dry summer that caused over £800m in revenue loss for farmers in England.
To protect the workforce supplying our food, the CCC advises
shifting working hours for agricultural labourers, providing shading and taking other measures to protect workers from heat stress.
Heat disruption in education and exams
High temperatures already cause an estimated 4.3% loss of cumulative learning time in England, leading advisors to call for exams to be rescheduled to cooler times of the year.
Underscoring the 24-hour nature of the heat threat, the report notes that schools must consider the impact of heat,
.. not only related to classroom temperature but also to pupils’ ability to sleep at night when temperatures remain above 20C.