Buses, bridges, butterflies and beavers. Oh, and George Michael.
Story 207: Signals from the future, conveniently available today.
The weather breaking before the Bank Holiday weekend is as as good a reason as any to start this week’s news with the climate.
The Daily Post published a report last summer by the Met Office that said
breaking the 32.8ºC May record was about three times more likely in the present climate than it would have been had the world not been affected by greenhouse gas emissions.
Whilst waiting to see if Monday turns out to be a record-breaker (The Times, ££ paywall), time to revisit latest estimates for global warming. The blizzard of reports, analysis and updates about the climate is overwhelming. Carbon Brief provided welcome clarity,
Projections suggest that the world is still on course for between 2.5C and 3C by 2100 of warming, (a level) previously described as ‘catastrophic’ by the UN.
Why this matters
This journal was founded on the tension created by climate change between living well and living responsibly. I believed it is he biggest challenge facing my generation
Many of the changes have reduced the forecast for global warming. But so much further to go. This is how The Economist described a world defined by 3ºC global warming,
Housing - Air conditioning more common in the UK .. much more to come
Guardian reported
an estimated 4m homes in the UK have air conditioning, double the figure from three years ago as Britons complain of ‘unliveable’ conditions during high temperatures.
Experts suggest the increase in AC ownership is the result of more people working from home and rising summer temperatures.
Those temperatures are going to continue to rise.
The UK Climate Change Committee warned that by 2050, under a 2ºC global warming scenario, heatwave temperatures will regularly exceed 40ºC in the UK.
The hottest days could peak at 43ºC or higher, which could lead to up to 10,000 additional heat-related deaths each year if further adaptation measures are not implemented.
Without those measures, nine in 10 UK homes were likely to overheat.
Why this matters
We need mitigation and adaptation in the face of climate change.
Mitigation reduces the emissions driving this crisis. Domestic buildings are the single biggest source of Richmond emissions, which is why Richmond council produced this useful guide to upgrading your home
Airconditioning is a form of human adaptation. But because it is an energy-intensive measure accounting for over 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions it is a problematic solution, for some.
Climate - And next year looks set to be dramatic, too
Forecasters put the chance of a very strong El Niño forming this year at about 82%, increasing the likelihood that 2027 becomes the hottest year on record, report The Times (££ Paywall)
The weather pattern could bring the return of 40C heat to Britain, a temperature only before experienced in 2022, as well as an increase in the price of tropical crops, such as coffee and sugar.
This is how BBC News explained it,
Why this matters
Human-influenced climate change acts a multiplier - warm becomes hot, wet drenched. Or El Nino becomes Super El Nino.
High temperatures are a particular problem for the over 60s. Barnes has an unusually older population.
Greater instability of weather with CC + El Niño. You may see:
February days at 18°C
blossom appearing absurdly early
intense downpours after drought
repeated hosepipe-ban summers
then surprisingly wet autumns
We need to get used to this. According to the Met Office forecast for Richmond borough our summers are going to be more intense more often
Even Karl Marx and George Michael need help. Its climate change 1-0 Karl Marx and George Michael with a £6.7m boostfor Highgate Cemetery climate-proofing
Transport - Does Barnes need a different sort of bus?
Barnes2050 explores the case for testing with a smaller civic connector - the Barnes e-hopper? - is needed to for the short journeys within the village.
One of the reasons for a Barnes civic connector is the continued shrinkage of the red bus network on the peninsual.
Fewer people are using London’s buses so Transport for London are cutting their costs. This long term trend looks to be contuining according to Ross Lydall’s reporting of the latest data from Transport for London.
Why this matters
Have we entered a vicious cycle? According to The Londoner, the reasons behind near 25% decline in passengers over the last decade include
the death of in-person shopping and the rise of Lime biking, as well as speeds on London roads hitting record lows, for the exodus of bus passengers.
In response TfL cut back routes to reduce costs to make-up for missing fare income. That makes buses less attractive..
In the medium term, the Mayor’s headline target is for 80% of all trips in London to be made by active, efficient, and sustainable modes (walking, cycling, and public transport) by 2041. Of that, buses are expected to are expected to continue to provide upto a quarter of all those trips. Falling passenger numbers put that at risk.
Infrastructure - More bridges in a poor condition
Londonist say eight of them in total have problems.
The Times (££ Paywall) and Putney News Westminster, Lambeth and Vauxhall have been assessed by TfL as in very poor condition. Putney Bridge is also under pressure, with separate concerns and works reported
Barnes Bugle suggests this ‘opens up the possibility that funds which could have been allocated to repair Hammersmith Bridge might be needed elsewhere.’
This was one of the outstanding issues identified in a useful summary in the May Bugle. Read and subscribe to the Bugle - valuable Barnes resource.
Why this matters
It easy to get lost in issues surrounding funding Hammersmith Bridge restoration of vehiclles.
In headline terms, this analysis remains accurate
UK Government (UKG)has identified the new £1billion Structures Fund as a potential source of funding
H&F council need to submit a funding request. this seems likely although Nigel Edwards, the Chairman of Hammersmith SOS, says he believes the council are ‘washing their hands’ of the project. He is unsure if the council even plans to apply to the Structures Fund.
The UKG could be expecting other local councils to contribute. H&F council have said any contribution by them would require a toll to charged. Richmond council are facing significant cuts in their UK Government funding. Wandswith council has identified a £137m spending gap their reserves cannot cover.
If H&F do make it a bid, it needs to meet objective criteria. What would be the effect of re-opening the bridge to cars? How do you weigh the upside versus the downside?
And then If the H&F bid passes muster, only then will be assessed alongside others. This is a national fund. This is not Barnes versus Putney. It is Barnes against the rest of the UK.
Nature - Beavers! In London!
Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London led the tributes this week to one of the more surprising incomers to the city,
Name a better engineer than a London beaver. We’ll wait.
Fabulous.